BetsMetrics Methodology
Full transparency on how we analyze odds, build tools and maintain regulatory compliance in 5 markets (BR, US, ES, FR, DE).
1. Data sources
We use official odds feeds from API-Football and The Odds API, updated every 30 minutes during live matches. Fixture data (matches, scores, stats) comes from API-Football. We do not invent odds or results — if a source goes down, the corresponding page stays empty until the next update.
2. Probability model
Our model converts market odds to implied probability (1/odds) and compares with estimates based on head-to-head historical data, recent form and tactical context. The model does NOT predict results — it only estimates where the market may be underestimating or overestimating a selection.
3. Regulatory compliance
We follow each market's rules. Brazil: Law 14.790/2023 and SPA/MF Ordinance 1.231/2024 (no public bonus); SPA/MF Ordinance 1.964/2026, in force since 17 July 2026, which replaced the generic responsible-gambling line with a literal Ministry of Finance warning occupying at least 10% of the creative; and Interministerial Ordinance 73/2026, whose article 4(V) treats sports analysis presented close to an advertising action, in a way that induces betting, as abusive. That last one is why every affiliate CTA on this site sits inside a block labelled as advertising, separated from the body of the analysis — the rule targets the blending of the two, not the prediction itself. Germany: GlüStV 2021. Spain: RD 958/2020. France: ANJ Code of conduct. US: state rules (+21, geoblocking in non-legalized states).
4. E-E-A-T and author
All editorial content is signed by Danilo Cabral, founder of BetsMetrics, with 15+ years in sports analytics and finance. The author page has full bio, areas of expertise and verified LinkedIn. Danilo is not a CFP or licensed tipster — transparent about it.
5. Affiliation disclosure
BetsMetrics may receive commission from featured operators. This does not affect our reviews — Betano gets 4.6/5 not because they pay us, but because they have fast Pix withdrawal and a good app. Negative reviews exist and are published. Our credibility is worth more than any individual commission.
6. Updates and review
Bookmaker reviews are revised every 90 days. Player/team comparisons are reviewed annually. Competition predictions are updated each matchday during the tournament. Any reader-reported error is fixed within 48h — Danilo reads every email personally.
Questions about our methodology? Talk to Danilo directly →