Probability applied to betting

The quantitative concepts behind any grounded decision: expected value, margin, CLV, Kelly and Poisson — with the arithmetic worked through.

• Closing Line Value: the metric that separates timing from skill

  CLV measures how your odds compare to the closing line. Learn the formula, worked example, and key limitations when using CLV to evaluate betting performance.

• Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing and Its Limits

  Learn how the Kelly criterion calculates optimal bet size, why overestimating probability leads to ruin, and when not to use it. Includes formula and examples.

• Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting: Definition and Calculation

  Learn expected value (EV) calculation in sports betting. See the formula, a worked example with decimal and American odds, and when EV misleads.

• The House Edge in Sports Betting: How Much Does It Cost You?

  Understand the house edge in sports betting: how to calculate it from odds, why it matters for expected value, and examples for US bettors.

• Poisson Model: How to Price Over/Under Markets

  Learn how the Poisson distribution models goal scoring, compute over/under probabilities, and understand when this model fails in practice.

• Probabilidade implícita: o que a odd está realmente dizendo

  Toda odd é uma probabilidade disfarçada de preço. Como converter, por que a soma passa de 100% e como remover a margem antes de comparar com sua estimativa.