Analysis by Danilo Cabral · Founder of Bets Metrics

Major League Soccer
CFChicago Fire
VSSun, Aug 02, 2026, 12:30 AM12:30 AM UTC
CFCharlotte FC
Venue: ·
United States

Why analyze Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC

What we look at in this match before any betting recommendation.

Compared odds

We compare odds from 4 licensed bookmakers to find the best value for each market.

Implied probability

We convert odds to implied probability so you can see where the market prices risk.

Match context

League: Major League Soccer. Stage: —. Venue: —, —.

Tools

Use the analyzer below to calculate EV, edge and optimal stake per Kelly criterion.

Best odds

Best odds · CF v CF

Bookmaker1 (CF)X (Draw)2 (CF)
COCoolbet
1.554.505.50
ON1xBet
1.535.095.46
PIPinnacle
1.504.935.35
MAMarathon Bet
1.494.705.30
Match preview

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC: MLS Match Analysis and PredictionMatch preview

Chicago Fire host Charlotte FC in a Major League Soccer clash that pits two sides with contrasting ambitions. Chicago, playing at home, have shown resilience in recent weeks, with a solid defensive record at Soldier Field. Charlotte, meanwhile, have been inconsistent on the road, struggling to convert chances. The market reflects this with odds indicating a slight edge for the hosts, but the gap is narrow, suggesting a tightly contested affair.

Tactically, Chicago's high press could trouble Charlotte's build-up play, while Charlotte's pace on the counter might exploit spaces behind Chicago's full-backs. With both teams averaging around 1.2 goals per game, a low-scoring encounter is plausible. Remember, odds are indicative and no outcome is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly and note that this content is for adults aged 18 and over.

📊 Bet analyzer

Calculate expected value (EV), edge and Kelly in real time

Calculated metrics
Implied probability50.0%
Edge+5.0%
Expected value (EV)+1.00 units
Expected ROI+10.0%
Return/Risk1.00 : 1
Suggested Kelly10.0%
Kelly stake100.00 units
Break-even probability50.0%
Verdict:Has value ✅EV: +1.00 units · ROI: +10.0%
Probability comparison
Your estimate55.0%
Implied from odds50.0%
Odds converter
Decimal2.00
Fractional1/1
American+100
🎯 Parlay builder
Combined odds3.78
Combined prob.26.46%
Bookmaker margin-73.54%

⚠️ Educational tool. User estimates — not a guarantee or recommendation. 18+, gamble responsibly.

Facts & stats
  • Chicago Fire have won 60% of their home matches this season, while Charlotte FC have lost 50% of their away games.
  • In the last 5 meetings between these sides, there have been over 2.5 goals in 3 of them.
  • Charlotte FC have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches, but have also conceded in all of them.

Matchup: Key duel: Chicago's striker Xherdan Shaqiri vs Charlotte's center-back Adilson Malanda. Shaqiri's creativity and long-range shooting will test Malanda's positioning and aerial ability.

Model pick

Our model suggests the most likely outcome is a Chicago Fire win with an estimated probability of 42%. This is a model estimate, not a guarantee. Please gamble responsibly. +18

Get the daily analysis

Your email for the best probability-rated picks.

Frequently asked questions

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC: MLS Match Analysis and Prediction — FAQ

What is the estimated probability for Chicago Fire to win?

Based on our model, Chicago Fire has an estimated probability of 42% to win, while Charlotte FC has 30% and a draw is 28%. These are model estimates, not guarantees.

How do odds work in soccer betting?

Odds reflect the implied probability of an outcome. For example, odds of 2.50 imply a 40% chance. However, odds are set by bookmakers and can change based on market movements. Always bet responsibly.

Matches

Other matches you may like