Is double chance always safer than betting on a single outcome?

It reduces the chance of losing because two results win, but the odds are lower. The risk of loss is not eliminated, and the lower payout means you need a higher win rate to break even. In the long run, the expected value can be worse due to larger margins.

How can I calculate the fair odds for a double chance bet?

First, remove the margin from the 1X2 market to get no-margin probabilities. Sum the probabilities of the two outcomes you want. Then take the reciprocal to get the fair decimal odds. Always compare this to the offered odds to see if there is value.

Do all sportsbooks offer double chance?

Most regulated US sportsbooks offer double chance for soccer and sometimes for other sports like hockey or basketball. It is less common in sports where draws are rare (e.g., baseball, American football). Always check the specific market listing.

Is the margin on double chance always higher than on 1X2?

Typically yes, because the bookmaker builds in extra margin for the combined selection. However, it varies by operator and match. You can measure the margin by comparing the sum of the three double chance options (1X, X2, 12) or by comparing the fair odds derived from the 1X2 market.

Double Chance: Covering More Outcomes for Less Risk

Updated on 2026-07-27 · 782 words

What it is

A double chance bet covers two of the three possible results in a match (home win, draw, away win). You win if either of your chosen outcomes occurs. The most common combinations are home-or-draw (1X), away-or-draw (X2), and home-or-away (12). Because the condition is easier to satisfy than a single outcome, the odds are lower. This market appeals to bettors who want to reduce variance, but the trade-off is a compressed payout that often carries a higher margin than the standard 1X2 market.

The math

A double chance is a sum of two mutually exclusive outcomes. The fair probability of 1X is the sum of home win and draw probabilities. The fair decimal odds are the reciprocal of that sum:

fair_odds_1X = 1 / (p_home + p_draw)

If the market probabilities (after removing margin) are p_home = 45%, p_draw = 28%, p_away = 27%, then:

p_1X = 0.45 + 0.28 = 0.73
Fair odds for 1X = 1 / 0.73 ≈ 1.37

In American odds, 1.37 is about -270 (you must risk $270 to win $100). If a sportsbook offers 1.30 (approximately −333) for 1X, you can calculate the implied probability: 1 / 1.30 = 0.769 or 76.9%. Compare this to the fair probability of 73%. The difference (3.9%) is the margin embedded in that double chance market. Because double chance combines two legs, the margin is often larger than on the straight 1X2 market for the same match. Always check the margin before including this market in a model.

Worked example

Suppose you have a match where you estimate the probabilities as: home 50%, draw 30%, away 20%. The fair odds for 1X (home or draw) would be 1 / (0.50 + 0.30) = 1 / 0.80 = 1.25 (American: −400). A sportsbook offers 1.33 (implied probability 75.2%) for 1X. Your estimated probability is 80%, so the implied probability is lower than yours. But does that create value?

Calculate expected value: (1.33 × 0.80) − 1 = 1.064 − 1 = 0.064, or +6.4%. This appears positive, but remember the margin. The bookmaker's margin on the full 1X2 market might be higher; the 1.33 odds likely already include a margin that you haven't removed. In practice, you must first compute the no-margin probabilities from the bookmaker's own 1X2 odds, then use those to derive the fair double chance odds. For example, if the 1X2 odds are 2.10 (home), 3.40 (draw), 3.60 (away), the implied probabilities are 47.6%, 29.4%, 27.8%, sum 104.8%. The margin is 4.8%. After removing margin proportionally: home 45.4%, draw 28.1%, away 26.5%. Then fair double chance 1X = 1 / (0.454 + 0.281) = 1.36 (American: −278). If the bookmaker offers 1.30, that is worse than the fair price. So even though your estimate is higher than the raw market, after margin removal the offered odds are below fair value. Always normalize before comparing.

When not to use it

The margin is typically higher than on single outcomes. Because double chance combines two legs, bookmakers often pad the margin further. Over many bets, this added edge makes it harder to achieve a positive expected value compared to betting single outcomes where you have an edge.
It can mask a strong opinion on a draw. Choosing home-or-draw seems safe, but if you actually believe the draw is unlikely, you are overpaying for that coverage. If your model gives the draw only 15%, the double chance 1X includes that 15% contingency, lowering your effective odds. You are better off betting the home win directly.
Low odds require an extremely high win rate to break even. A double chance line around 1.30 (implied 76.9%) demands winning nearly 8 of 10 bets just to stay even. One losing streak quickly erodes your bankroll, and the small payout per win limits compounding.
The market depth is thinner than the main 1X2. Liquidity is lower, meaning prices are more volatile and less efficient. You are more likely to face adverse line movement when placing larger bets, and arbitrage opportunities are rarer because the margins are wider.
It can give a false sense of security. Covering two outcomes reduces short-term variance, but the long-term expected return is still negative (usually more so than 1X2). The psychological comfort of "only one outcome can beat me" may tempt you to stake larger amounts than your bankroll strategy allows, amplifying losses over time.

Use the calculator to compare double chance odds with their fair value before betting.

Sports betting involves risk of financial loss. This content is for educational purposes only. Must be 21+ to wager. If gambling stops being fun, seek help.

Frequently asked questions

Is double chance always safer than betting on a single outcome?: It reduces the chance of losing because two results win, but the odds are lower. The risk of loss is not eliminated, and the lower payout means you need a higher win rate to break even. In the long run, the expected value can be worse due to larger margins.
How can I calculate the fair odds for a double chance bet?: First, remove the margin from the 1X2 market to get no-margin probabilities. Sum the probabilities of the two outcomes you want. Then take the reciprocal to get the fair decimal odds. Always compare this to the offered odds to see if there is value.
Do all sportsbooks offer double chance?: Most regulated US sportsbooks offer double chance for soccer and sometimes for other sports like hockey or basketball. It is less common in sports where draws are rare (e.g., baseball, American football). Always check the specific market listing.
Is the margin on double chance always higher than on 1X2?: Typically yes, because the bookmaker builds in extra margin for the combined selection. However, it varies by operator and match. You can measure the margin by comparing the sum of the three double chance options (1X, X2, 12) or by comparing the fair odds derived from the 1X2 market.