📈 ROI & Yield

What it is

ROI (Return on Investment) and Yield are two metrics that measure betting profitability relative to the amount staked. ROI shows net profit as a percentage of total money wagered; Yield is the same calculation but often interpreted on a per-bet basis. CLV (Closing Line Value) compares the odds you got to the final market price — a positive CLV means you found value before the market corrected. None of these numbers guarantee future results; they are backward-looking diagnostics that require a large number of bets to separate skill from variance.

How it works

The math is straightforward. ROI = (Total returns − Total staked) ÷ Total staked, expressed as a percentage. For example, if you staked $1,000 across 200 bets and got back $1,100 in total returns, your ROI is ($1,100 − $1,000) ÷ $1,000 = 0.10, or 10%. Yield is identical but sometimes reported per bet: $0.10 per dollar staked.

CLV is calculated per bet and then averaged. For a single bet: CLV = (Your bet odds ÷ Closing odds) − 1. If you took odds of 2.00 and the closing odds were 1.80, CLV = (2.00 ÷ 1.80) − 1 = 0.111, or +11.1%. A positive CLV suggests you consistently beat the closing line, a negative CLV means you took worse prices than the market eventually offered.

How to use it

1. Enter your total staked in the "Total staked" field — this is the sum of all your bet stakes over the period.
2. Enter your total returns including stake in the "Total returns (including stake)" field — this is what you got back, not net profit.
3. Enter the total number of bets placed in the "Number of bets" field to enable per-bet averages and yield calculation.
4. For CLV, fill in "Your bet odds" and "Closing odds" for each wager — the calculator will average the CLV across all entered bets.

How to read the result

• A positive ROI means you made money after stake is returned; a negative ROI means a loss. But 10% ROI over 20 bets is noise; over 2,000 bets it might signal an edge.
• Yield is just another way to see ROI — it does not add new information. Both are distorted by large single bets if you use total staked instead of average stake.
• CLV above zero is a necessary condition for long-term profitability, but not sufficient because you still need to overcome the bookmaker's margin. A +2% average CLV is promising; -5% suggests you are paying too much for your bets.

When not to trust the result

• Small sample sizes render ROI and yield nearly meaningless. With fewer than 200 bets, variability is so high that a 20% ROI could easily be luck — or a true edge. Even 500 bets can be noisy for heavy favorites or long shots.
• CLV depends heavily on what you use as the closing line. If you only compare to the line at game start, you ignore steam moves. Different sources (Pinnacle, bookmaker average, exchange) give different CLV numbers and none is the single truth.
• Illiquid markets (player props, obscure leagues) often have erratic closing lines that are not efficient. A positive CLV in those markets may reflect thin trading, not your skill. Stick to high-liquidity markets for CLV analysis.
• These metrics ignore the betting approach: flat betting versus Kelly staking changes the interpretation. A high ROI from a few huge bets on long shots is less reliable than the same ROI from many small even-money bets.

Frequently asked questions

Why is my ROI different from what I expected from my record?

ROI uses total staked, not number of bets. If you bet different amounts each time, a losing streak on larger bets can swing ROI dramatically even if your win rate is good. The calculator shows average stake and win rate to help you see why.

How many bets do I need for ROI to be meaningful?

There is no magic number, but a common rule of thumb is at least 200–300 bets for even-money odds. For odds of 3.00 or higher, you need several hundred more because long shots hit less frequently. CLV becomes useful sooner — some professionals start looking at it after 100 bets.

Can I calculate ROI and CLV on a per-sport basis?

Yes, but the tool takes aggregate numbers. You would have to run the calculator separately for each sport. Cross-sport comparisons are tricky because margins and liquidity vary, so the CLV benchmark differs.